Table 1 Performance of the original risk prediction models and the recalibrated models based on diagnosis by FPG and HbA1c

E/O [95% CI]

0.15 [0.12–0.18]

1.01 [0.83–1.23]

0.24 [0.20–0.30]

0.96 [0.79–1.17]

6.40 [5.27–7.78]

2.76 [2.27–3.35]

0.70 [0.57–0.85]

0.90 [0.74–1.09]

Brier score

0.13

0.11

0.13

0.12

0.67

0.19

0.10

0.10

Yates slope

0.02

0.11

0.02

0.08

0.11

0.27

0.05

0.07

C-statistic [95% CI]

0.77 [0.73–0.82]

-

0.69 [0.63–0.74]

-

0.75 [0.69–0.81]

-

0.74 [0.67–0.81]

-

Optimal threshold

0.01

0.08

0.02

0.09

0.92

0.21

0.11

0.15

Sensitivity

87.0

-

70.0

-

88.0

-

67.0

-

Specificity

55.0

-

66.0

-

51.0

-

71.0

-

T2D Diagnosed by HbA1c

Sample Size

n = 815 (215 cases)

n = 822 (218 cases)

n = 477 (124 cases)

n = 480 (125 cases)

Performance

Original

Recalibrated

Original

Recalibrated

Original

Recalibrated

Original

Recalibrated

E/O [95% CI]

0.08 [0.07–0.09]

0.84 [0.73–0.95]

0.13 [0.11–0.15]

0.81 [0.71–0.92]

3.35 [2.94–3.83]

1.93 [1.69–2.20]

0.37 [0.32–0.42]

0.96 [0.84–1.09]

Brier score

0.25

0.16

0.24

0.17

0.55

0.23

0.20

0.16

Yates slope

0.02

0.18

0.04

0.17

0.11

0.31

0.06

0.14

C-statistic [95% CI]

0.79 [0.75–0.82]

-

0.77 [0.73–0.80]

-

0.78 [0.73–0.82]

-

0.79 [0.75–0.83]

-

Optimal threshold

0.01

0.17

0.02

0.16

0.92

0.38

0.08

0.24

Sensitivity

80.0

-

74.0

-

89.0

-

78.0

-

Specificity

64.0

-

71.0

-

55.0

-

73.0

-