Table 2 Performance of the recalibrated risk prediction models according to sex, median age, median BMI, and residency based on diagnosis by FPG and HbA1c

ADRS

FPG-based diagnosis

E/O

0.86

[0.60–1.24]

1.06

[0.84–1.34]

0.88

[0.63–1.22]

1.00

[0.79–1.28]

1.14

[0.77–1.69]

0.92

[0.73–1.15]

1.13

[0.85–1.51]

0.89

[0.68–1.16]

C-Statistic

0.77

[0.68–0.85]

0.78

[0.73–0.83]

0.86

0.78

[0.70–0.85]

0.73

[0.67–0.79]

0.34

0.77

[0.67–0.86]

0.67

[0.60–0.74]

0.10

0.78

[0.72–0.85]

0.76

[0.69–0.82]

0.59

HbA1c-based diagnosis

E/O

1.04

[0.78–1.40]

0.78

[0.67–0.91]

0.98

[0.76–1.28]

0.77

[0.66–0.90]

1.09

[0.82–1.43]

0.74

[0.63–0.86]

0.97

[0.79–1.18]

0.73

[0.61–0.87]

C-Statistic

0.76

[0.68–0.85]

0.97

[0.75–0.83]

0.50

0.78

[0.71–0.86]

0.72

[0.66–0.77]

0.13

0.67

[0.59–0.76]

0.72

[0.67–0.77]

0.34

0.76

[0.71–0.82]

0.80

[0.76–0.85]

0.25

Sample Size

n = 261

(30 cases)

n = 676

(71 cases)

n = 447

(35 cases)

n = 490

(66 cases)

n = 447

(25 cases)

n = 490

(76 cases)

n = 527

(47 cases)

n = 410

(54 cases)

Simplified FINDRISC

FPG-based diagnosis

E/O

0.43

[0.30–0.61]

1.16

[0.92–1.47]

1.11

[0.80–1.55]

0.84

[0.66–1.07]

0.63

[0.43–0.94]

1.00

[0.80–1.25]

1.13

[0.85–1.50]

0.81

[0.62–1.06]

C-Statistic

0.64

[0.53–0.76]

0.72

[0.66–0.78]

0.28

0.68

[0.58–0.78]

0.65

[0.58–0.72]

0.56

0.58

[0.44–0.72]

0.54

[0.47–0.62]

0.66

0.69

[0.60–0.77]

0.68

[0.61–0.75]

0.90

HbA1c-based diagnosis

E/O

0.57

[0.43–0.77]

0.86

[0.74–0.99]

1.21

[0.93–1.57]

0.66

[0.57–0.77]

0.67

[0.51–0.89]

0.82

[0.70–0.95]

0.97

[0.79–1.18]

0.68

[0.57–0.81]

C-Statistic

0.74

[0.65–0.83]

0.76

[0.72–0.80]

0.60

0.80

[0.73–0.86]

0.71

[0.6–0.76]

0.03

0.66

[0.58–0.75]

0.64

[0.58–0.69]

0.61

0.76

[0.71–0.81]

0.77

[0.72–0.82]

0.81

Sample Size

n = 261

(15 cases)

n = 676

(34 cases)

n = 447

(12 cases)

n = 490

(37 cases)

n = 477

(13 cases)

n = 460

(36 cases)

n = 527

(27 cases)

n = 410

(22 cases)

ADA

FPG-based diagnosis

E/O

2.58

[1.81–3.70]

2.82

[2.24–3.56]

2.39

[1.72–3.33]

2.75

[2.16–3.49]

3.15

[2.13–4.67]

2.43

[1.94–3.04]

2.88

[2.17–3.84]

2.65

[2.03–3.46]

C-Statistic

0.75

[0.63–0.87]

0.75

[0.68–0.83]

0.96

0.74

[0.64–0.83]

0.68

[0.59–0.77]

0.37

0.81

[0.73–0.89]

0.64

[0.55–0.74]

0.01

0.82

[0.74–0.89]

0.65

[0.54–0.76]

0.01

HbA1c-based diagnosis

E/O

2.70

[2.01–3.63]

1.73

[1.49-2.00]

2.39

[1.84–3.11]

1.73

[1.49–2.02]

2.81

[2.13–3.71]

1.59

[1.37–1.85]

2.12

[1.73–2.58]

1.79

[1.50–2.14]

C-Statistic

0.80

[0.70–0.90]

0.77

[0.72–0.82]

0.55

0.77

[0.69–0.86]

0.69

[0.62–0.76]

0.12

0.68

[0.58–0.78]

0.68

[0.62–0.75]

0.99

0.80

[0.74–0.86]

0.73

[0.66–0.80]

0.17

Sample Size

n = 261

(15 cases)

n = 676

(34 cases)

n = 447

(12 cases)

n = 490

(37 cases)

n = 477

(13 cases)

n = 460

(36 cases)

n = 527

(27 cases)

n = 410

(22 cases)

IRS

FPG-based diagnosis

E/O

0.68

[0.48–0.97]

0.98

[0.78–1.24]

1.03

[0.74–1.43]

0.79

[0.62–1.01]

0.99

[0.67–1.47]

0.80

[0.64-1.00]

0.98

[0.74–1.30]

0.83

[0.63–1.08]

C-Statistic

0.79

[0.69–0.89]

0.74

[0.65–0.82]

0.45

0.68

[0.56–0.80]

0.70

[0.61–0.79]

0.81

0.72

[0.60–0.84]

0.65

[0.56–0.75]

0.40

0.79

[0.70–0.87]

0.66

[0.55–0.78]

0.10

HbA1c-based diagnosis

E/O

1.08

[0.80–1.45]

0.92

[0.79–1.07]

1.42

[1.10–1.85]

0.78

[0.67–0.91]

1.25

[0.95–1.65]

0.83

[0.71–0.96]

1.09

[0.89–1.33]

0.86

[0.72–1.02]

C-Statistic

0.84

[0.75–0.92]

0.76

[0.71–0.82]

0.14

0.83

[0.76–0.89]

0.70

[0.64–0.77]

0.01

0.68

[0.60–0.77]

0.67

[0.61–0.74]

0.78

0.80

[0.74–0.86]

0.76

[0.69–0.83]

0.39